New Industry-Space Traffic Control
One of my favorite parts of the commercial space industry is that it is always evolving. It seems that every few months, a new type of business shows up to fill a new need. In previous articles, I have talked about supersonic planes becoming more mainstream. I’ve talked about how rideshare companies are taking the place of small launch companies, and I’ve also talked about how companies are moving to small constellations.
This article is going to talk about a new industry that may be emerging but still has a few obstacles in its way before it can make it to the civil sector, and that new industry is Space Traffic Control.
Congestion
I sometimes take for granted how big space is and thinking that it would be very rare for objects like satellites to hit each other while orbiting. That may have been the case a decade ago; there has been a growing concern about the number of spacecraft and debris in space.
At the moment, the U.S Space Command is monitoring over 27,000 objects in space. And that number is only going up. It is forecasted that there will be more than 50,000 satellites launched into orbit.
The issue with this comes from the fact that all the satellites have to be in a specific orbit. For example, most satellites that are going to be launched are going into Low Earth Orbit. So, while space is huge, there is only a certain amount of it that is useful.
With that being said, LEO isn’t necessarily going to be filled up and look like traffic packed highway. What 50,000 satellites does mean is that there is going to be way more liabilities floating around, and someone needs to track them because if something bad does happen, it will be catastrophic.
Quick Example
As reported from a SpaceNews article, “On Sept. 22, International Space Station controllers acted quickly to adjust the orbit of the station when U.S. Space Command informed them that an unidentified piece of debris would come within 1.4 kilometers of the station later that day. A Progress cargo spacecraft docked to the station fired its thrusters, nudging the station enough to ensure the object — later found to be debris from an H-2A rocket upper stage that broke apart last year — passed without incident.”
Incidents like that are becoming more common. As stated later in the article, “In low Earth orbit, satellite operators typically evaluate the need for a collision avoidance maneuver when one of their satellites is expected to come within 1 kilometer of another object. Space Data Center and SOCRATES data indicate that in 2017, LEO spacecraft likely came within 1 kilometer of other objects an average of 2,000 times per month. Now, it’s closer to 4,000 monthly conjunctions.”
The main issue is not that if there is a collision, then that spacecraft doesn’t work, and they are out a few million dollars. The main problem is that debris is made from that one collision and can lead to more collisions. If there are enough collisions, then some orbits will not be usable.
What do they do now?
At the moment, the U.S Government has the Space Surveillance Network that tracks all of these objects using a mix of conventional radars, phased-array radars, and telescopes known as the Ground-Based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance system or GEODSS.
They also have two satellites in Geosynchronous orbit that monitor activity.
Even with all those systems set up, they are still working with L3Harris to support and maintain these systems.
Next Step
On Nov. 18 the U.S Senate passed a bill that gives the Commerce Department authority for civil space traffic management (STM).
If passed by Congress, that bill would allow the Commerce Department to collect space situational awareness data from both U.S. government agencies and foreign and commercial sources, as well as provide such data and related services to government and commercial organizations. It also indemnifies the government from legal action stemming from the use of such data and services.
The bill allows the Commerce Department to have more power and more funding. It also gives them more flexibility in the private sector.
A major upside to the bill is that it shows that the U.S government is taking space traffic and debris seriously. Having the Commerce Department focus on the problem instead shows that the U.S government is aware of the problem and deems it a priority.
Opportunity?
If you are looking to get into the industry and want to join a start-up, it seems like a great time to try to find companies doing space traffic control or debris removal.
This may sound redundant, but if you are looking to start a company, space traffic control and debris removal may be a good place to look.
For example, on Dec. 2, 2020, The European Space Agency (ESA) made a contract with Swiss start-up ClearSpace SA for $104 million for a space debris removal mission. If this mission goes through, it will be a world first.
There are also companies like Launchspace Technologies who are making a satellite constellation to track debris and making a satellite constellation to collect debris. They already have a NASA Space Act Agreement and won support from Airbus because they are going to start testing on the International Space Station.
The last example is Astrolscale, which is one of the first companies to base its business model around debris removal. They plan on having their first mission launch in March 2021
Wrap Up
As I showed in the last section, there are companies who are trying to be the first to tackle the problem of space debris. Something that I thought would not be profitable. The reason is that companies need government support to remove the debris. They will not be able to bring it back down and sell it because of security issues, and it might not be worth to cost to retrieve it. So the business model does not make much sense. However, now that the government deems it a priority, it is a good time to get into the business.
I will be real honest and say the space traffic control business is a gamble. There is no guarantee that the government will need help or pay for companies to track satellites, and at any time, they can add new laws so that they can’t work with private companies. However, there is a chance that if you do a space traffic control business, you can sell data or help other companies track their satellites, but most companies do that on their own already.
Overall I would say if you are looking to start a business, space debris removal may be the way to go.
And if you are looking to get into the industry and want to get on the ground floor of something, space traffic control may be the way to go.